Saturday, January 21, 2012

Gingrich Wins South Carolina Women, Independents, Religious

Newt Gingrich won a majority of the Republican women's vote in South Carolina's Saturday Republican Presidential Primary. Gingrich was supposed to have an overwhelming problem with southern women who saw him as a Yankee because of his much publicized infidelities. Despite this, Gingrich garnered 36% of the female vote to Romney's 29%, 20% for Santorum, and 12% for Paul.

Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit writes,
A female reader writes that Gingrich may not have been so hurt by ex-wife Marianne’s TV interview:
Hate to say this and don’t use my name, but I watched the interview and thought
“You bitch, he cheated on his first wife with you. What the heck did you expect?”
That may explain it.

STILL MORE: Another female reader writes: “Check the dates. Marianne, the supposed women scorned, married Newt when his star was rising (1981-his second term in Congress) and divorced him at his political nadir in 2000. If Callista is the real golddigger she’s also the one who stood by her man in his politically lean decade.”
Gingrich was also said to be to far right and too radical for Independent voters. Again, the experts were wrong. Romney was the expected to be the Independent's favored candidate, but those calling themselves Very Conservative in exit polling turned out only 19% of the vote vs 48% for Gingrich. Those claiming to be Somewhat Conservative voted 41% for Gingrich and 30% for Romney. Mitt Romney only beat Gingrich among the Moderate-Liberal Independents, 34% to 31%.

The religious voters were supposed to run from Gingrich because of his serial marital peccadillo's and faith switching in favor of the religious and stable family man, Mitt Romney. For a third time, the pundits were wrong. Among the Born Again crowd, Gingrich won 44% to 22%; however, Romney got the non born-again vote 38% to 33%, but just barely.

Both the college degreed and non-college group went for Gingrich 37% to 31% and  43% to 24%. Interestingly, all income groups went for Gingrich from less than $50,000 to over $100,000.

Voters overwhelmingly believe Newt Gingrich can beat Barack Obama, is the true conservative, has the right experience although only 6% think he's of strong moral character.

The primaries and caucuses so far represent slightly less than 2% of the total Republican nominating vote. There is a statistical observation that when a subject reaches 2% approval or acceptance, the remaining 98% will fall in line. Newt Gingrich is on the slippery cusp of winning the nomination; he's proven he can win big, but he's also shown an ability to lose big.