Sunday, October 12, 2008

Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Obama

Benjamin Disraeli said, and was popularized by Mark Twain, "There are three kids of lies - lies, damned lies, and statistics." Now we have four - Barack Obama.

It is quite true that Barack Obama is outspending John McCain in every state. Ratios vary with reports of 8:1, 5:3, 3:1, and it cannot be denied that Obama has more money, a lot more money. Much of it has been donated illegally by persons dead or non-existent. Much of the money has come from real people who are not citizens and citizens exceeding the contribution caps.

John McCain, however, is severly limited under the public campaign financing law, McCain-Feingold. Barack Obama had pledged early on to abide by McCain-Feingold, but renegged after the primaries. As a co-author of the law, McCain was stuck, hoisted on his own petard.

The polls show Obama leading McCain by 3, 4, 5, and up to 8 percentage points. In a presidential campaign year in which the Democrats should be winning by 20-30 points, why is Obama so far behind expectations? A few months ago, McCain was trailing Obama by 15%. A few weeks ago, Obama had an 8% lead over McCain that was reduced to 3% very quickly. Next thing we heard was that Obama had "surged" ahead with a 4% lead. And today, SkyNews is reporting Obama still with a 4% lead. That's surging? Where is the ground swell of support, where is the landslide that has the Democrat leadership already picking out new drapes and carpet for the Oval Office?

The media, particularly MSNBC, is in the tank with Obama. Hillbuzz opines the media has
risked all its credibility betting on an Obama win, will not report any of this because when Obama falls, he will take America’s faith in journalism with him. Democrats, especially, will never trust the media again, since they will come to realize they lost a sure shot at taking back the White House with Hillary Clinton, because the media wanted to run an Obama campaign, and Howard Dean and Donna Brazile were all too pleased to oblige. Republicans never trusted the media to begin with — so chalk that up, surprisingly, to yet another thing centrist Democrats now agree with Republicans on.
Hillbuzz goes on to say there is a storm brewing, a political storm that some recognize and some don't and it's reflected in the poll numbers which are being cooked.

Whenever a storm brews for Obama, the media ratchets up its cheerleading, and those in the tank for him do whatever they can to protect him. That’s why we’ve also noticed the polling companies changing their party ID samples in the last two or three weeks, upping Democrats’ party ID to 50% in some polls, and dropping Republicans down to just 20%, with 30% Independent. If you look at this critically, you’d see that Democrats have never enjoyed more than a 4% historical party ID advantage. In 2006, a year that Democrats RAGED against both Bush and the sex-scandal plagued GOP (Mark Foley, Larry Craig, and other characters), Democrats had just a 3% party ID advantage. All of this means polls should be using samples with 39% Democrats, 35% Republican, and 26% Independent.

The polling samples are manipulated to give Obama higher poll numbers than he really in fact has, as reflective of support in the electorate. Some people believe this is all being done as cover for the voter fraud — so that Obama polls higher than he should in states where ACORN’s activities are meant to pump illegal votes in to push him much higher than he would be in an actual, legitimate election. The polls, in essence, are thus showing that ACORN is expected to deliver that 11% party ID advantage to Democrats, by bringing the dead, ineligible felons, and homeless multi-voters to the voting booths. The polls thus seem rigged to produce the results Obama wants…and ACORN is the muscle to make sure results are delivered to match the established polls.
Obviously, if more Obama supporters and fewer McCain supporters are asked who they will be voting for in November, the poll results will favor Obama. And when the enormous out-spending is factored in, one must wonder if Obama really is winning in the polls or anywhere else. Everything indicates that Barack Obama is in a one candidate race, but McCain's polling numbers are within, or very near, the margin of error to tell a different story.

This campaign will, I think, come down to solitary votes on election day. Obama's campaign news releases cannot be trusted, the work of ACORN cannot be trusted, MSNBC can't be trusted on anything. Oddly, it's the doubt that can be trusted. So much money spent by Obama to buy the presidency and he is still only 3-4 points ahead.

I hate that Race is even a factor, but it is and about 6% of voters say they cannot vote for a Black man - and those are Democrats! How many of the undecided voters will go that direction in the privacy of the voting booth? How many who say they are committed to Obama publicly, but privately cannot vote for a Black man?

For the rest, Obama just can't make his case stick with Americans who take a moment to think about what Obama says and realize it's all nonsense and a Socialist Utopian pipe dream from the get go. It is hard sometimes, we get discouraged by the 'we are doomed' rhetoric and the constant stupidity of Obama's crowds. But, there is something else at play in this election that just will not support Barack Obama and will put John McCain in the White House. Expect another 'DEWEY BEATS TRUMAN!' type headline on November 5.



The life of Indigo Red is full of adventure. Tune in next time for the Further Adventures of Indigo Red.

7 comments:

Gayle said...

Good post, Indigo, and I really hope you're right, but I doubt we will know whether you are or not by November 5. I've a feeling Ohio may be tying things up and it may be awhile before we know who won.

Indigo Red said...

November 5 is more a metaphor for that day after theelection when we do know the results. I'm sure it will not be an overnight count and will be many weeks til we know the actual winner.

If my guy isn't elected, then I'm calling it a stolen election. It's a grand American tradition.

Mustang said...

Excellent blog, so I'm blog rolling you.

This is a bit of good news, if suddenly ten million newly registered Democrats don't all show up from Timbuctu and vote for Obama.

Semper Fi

Tom C said...

LOL Indi.... Ah waz robbed by da Man!

Indigo Red said...

That's right, Tom. That's my story and sticking to it.

Thanks, Mustang. It will be very interesting to see how many "Democrats" don't show up from the four corners of the world.

dcat said...

We have thugs working to get him in, here in Washington State!

I think I am going to be sick!

Indigo Red said...

I hear ya, dcat. I'm already sickened by the thuggery, intimidation, and bald faced lying.