decreased solar activity.
Sol, our Sun, has not been recognized as an agent of cooling, said Herrera, only heating. The slight warming of the planet has caused glaciers to melt, move, and calve during a brief period of solar activity. This action has been interpreted as long term global warming. However, the decreased solar activity is associated more closely with cooling. Herrera's research suggests the cooling has actually been going on since 1995.
The climate models used by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasting a fried Earth in the near future are wrong. The predictions are based upon mathematical models that do not include natural phenomena or solar activity. The models, to be useful, should include natural events like volcanoes and solar activity as well as manmade events like pollution.
Farmers' Almanac is predicting a very cold winter this year. The 192 year old publication claims to be accurate 80-85% of the time. The National Weather Service, however, says temperatures this winter will be warmer than normal over much of the country, including Alaska, which is already recording the coldest summer temperatures since the 1970s. Anchorage has a normal average of 88 days above 60 degrees F, but this year has had only 35 days at or above 60F.
The almanac predicts above-normal snowfall for the Great Lakes and Midwest, especially during January and February, and above-normal precipitation for the Southwest in December and for the Southeast in January and February. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions should be getting an unusually wet or snowy February.The Almanac's prognostication process is unorthodox to say the least. In fact, it's down right unscientific. The appropriately named Caleb Weatherbee, the Almanac's chief forecaster, "uses a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon."
As non-linear as Weatherbee's process may be, his conclusions are borne out by e-mail comments he has received. Readers have spotted nature's signs indicating a very harsh winter. The folk signs include the quantity of acorns on the ground, the amount of hair on woolly caterpillars, and the frequency of August fog among many other natural indicators.
The 80-85% success rate of the Farmers' Almanac over 192 years is far better than anything the Weather Service has done over any two day period. I am a skeptic of most folkways, but I have experienced the accuracy of the Almanac all my life. I'll trust the Farmers' Almanac over the National Weather Service any day, any year.
Of course, it could just be that a period of cooling follows a period of warming as surely as winter follows summer.
The life of Indigo Red is full of adventure. Tune in next time for the Further Adventures of Indigo Red.