Saturday, December 31, 2005

Iran is Next - By Coup or Attack

NATO and the US have begun plans for a possible attack against Iran says the Jerusalem Post. The German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel reports similar indications from NATO that they are studying the possibilities and ramifications of such a strike.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Prime minister of Turkey was asked by CIA Director Porter Goss on Dec 12, 2005 to allow the use of military bases in 2006. The bases presumably would be for the launching of aircraft and air assault troops in an attack of Iran. Without offering a concrete time frame for an assault, the neighboring countries of Arabia, Jordan, Oman, and Pakistan have been briefed on the possibility of an air assault operation, claims the German DDP news agency.

The on-line Der Spiegel refers to a January 2005 article in the New Yorker that American Special Operations Forces entered Iran in 2005 to identify and mark possible targets. As was posted here at FAIR, Dec. 11, 2005, the Israelis have also established signals intelligence gathering stations in northern Iraq aimed at identifying Iranian nuclear sites and providing targeting data during an attack.

The ultra-pious Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, appears to Western analysts and Iranian moderates to be hellbent on an open confrontation with the West. Talking tough and demanding Israels destruction or removal of Israel to Europe has not endeared Ahmadinejad to Western nations, not least of which are the states of Old Europe. To die a martyr's death against the infidel forces, thus gaining the ultimate closeness with Allah would be a dream come true for Ahmadinejad.

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former President and current opponent of Ahmadinejad, has been attempting in recent weeks to humiliate the President. Trying to ameliorate worldwide condemnation, Rafsanjani last week announced, "We have no problem with the Jews." Living in Iran, mostly undisturbed, are more than 30,000 Iranian Jews. They attend synagogues, have parliamentary representation, and live in fear of the state as does any Iranian.

After so many years of loosening the Khomeini era restrictions, there is a generation of young Iranians who are very opposed to the reinstatement of strict Sharia law by the current ruling council and wish to return to the reforms of Khameini and Rafsanjani. The news out of Iran has been of sporadic street demonstrations, arrests of protesting students, and the imprisonment of Iranian bloggers. The poor response to the recent series of earthquakes in Iran has not garnered points for Tehran either.

There are rumors in Tehran, reports Der Spiegel, that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may not have many days left in office. Iran's political elite would rather not see a Western attack, nor do they wish to see Iran become more of an international pariah than it is already. There may be pragmatic forces preparing for a coup to take place before the Israeli March 28, 2006 deadline for the nuclear facilities bombing to commence, or the possible Western invasion. Either way, time is running short for Iran.

The life of Indigo Red is full of adventure. Tune in next time for the Further Adventures of Indigo Red.


skye said...

Give a village idiot enough rope and he will hang himself.

In addition, a blockade of the Straight of Hormuz would expedite this collapse.

There may be pragmatic forces preparing for a coup to take place before the Israeli March 28, 2006 deadline for the nuclear facilities bombing to commence, or the possible Western invasion.

skye said...

Happy New Year, Indigo!

dcat said...

Happy New Year!

I love it Indigo! We just need to roll up those sleeves and take care of them! :)

I see skye beat me to the punch! Hey skye :)

Indigo Red said...

Thanks, Skye and dcat. Happy New Year to you as well.

Iran has actually been stocking up on sea mines (probably French made) in the hopes of blocking the Gulf waterways to Western shipping and Navies. This could pose a small problem to obtaining oil to carry on the fight.

However, I see this as a good thing because it is forcing oil prices up, thus forcing us to find other oil sources and alternatives to oil. Pearl Harbor was not a defeat, it was Americas greatest victory. We built the most modern Navy the world had ever seen and with it beat the enemy into unconditional submission, making friends with the former enemy. We will do the impossible again because we are Americans, that's what we do.

dcat said...

That is right Indigo! :)

skye said...

In the event of a blocade of Hormuz, OPEC will undoubtedly raise the price/barrel of oil in opposition of this blocade.

The US can counter by releasing our oil and gas reserves to the market. Maybe.

However, I don't imagine the goverment of Iran will last more than a few months under such a blocade. We may be not be able to obtain their oil, but they will not be able to sell their oil either.

The Iranian state will founder without the revenue from the oil sales, and increasing public unrest. President Bush can effect another regime change without the coalition setting foot into Iran.

What would the moonbats have to say then??

dcat said...

That was brilliant skye!

I feel they would still be sitting in the prevail corner sucking their thumbs and mumbling to themselves even more then they do now LOL!

Macker said...

The el cubos will be sucking something else other than their thumbs....

Beware of the Ides of March.

devildog6771 said...

We need to be very careful here or the Middle Eastern countries like Kuwait might be forced to take sides when they don't want to. What we really ought to do is encourage the moderate young people and possibly the old president. Although I am not sure he can be trusted. Iran has been having meetings all over the world with al Qaeda since before this nut got in office.

Many Middle Eastern countries have been gradually giving their people more say in governmental affairs.

Hey, thanks for the visit Indigo. Happy New Year. I like what you have to say.

dcat said...

So Explain yourself Macker before I go off on you!

Indigo you want to fill me in a little on this character?

Indigo Red said...

Well, I would dcat, if I knew anything about Macker.

I'm not sure what is meant by el cubos. If the reference is to Cuban communists and their liberal Hollywood fan club, then I would say he or she is OK.

The Ides of March I understand. March 15 is the day Julius Caesar was murdered by Cassius and the Roman Senate. Not exactly the 15th, but the 28th is Israels deadline for a decision about Iran. Anytime after that, Iran may be be attacked if they don't turn away from nuke development.

Thanks Devil Dog - Al Qaeda is meeting around the world. Apparently they are again setting up HQ in the Somolia/Sudan area which will really cause problems.

I think Skye to right on this one. It is VERY possible for regime change in Iran without ever setting foot (officially) in Iran. BUt the 12th Imam myth is a real wildcard.

dcat said...

Thanks Indigo,

I saw your post at Hello Iraq.

dcat said...

WTF!!! "I am not sure he can be trusted. Iran has been having meetings all over the world with al Qaeda since before this nut got in office."

Ok she is like history if she is talking about GWB!

dcat said...

Old president of what? Oh old president Iran?

The currant one is taking them back to Iatola days!

Ok she is back on whew this is hard to keep up for my head!

The Flomblog said...

Superb article - you are now on my Morning Must list. Keep it up.

Also - Are you aware that Israel has a very powerful navy - even some guided missle subs? Hmmmmm?

dcat said...

See Indigo you are damn good! :)

dcat said...

Indigo what happened? I was about to quote you at ITM!?

skye said...

Beware the Ides of March..


Beware the 28th of March!

Spot on, Indigo!
Not exactly the 15th, but the 28th is Israels deadline for a decision about Iran

Concerned Patriot said...

oh yeah dude ... Iran is fucked! I personally guarantee it!